LOCK and LOAD!

First off, let me apologize to all my loyal readers (both of them!) for the long delay between posts. I really can’t explain it; I took a 2 week vacation in the middle of August and went down to Myrtle Beach. I feel like I have been busy on one thing or another ever since and I can’t believe the season is upon us. I thought it would be a good idea to do my FFOC draft while on vacation. In hindsight I am thinking it wasn’t such a great idea, I hadn’t had a vacation in several years and I really enjoyed getting away from it all. However, I guess I got a little too far away from it all and I completely forgot about my Q school practice draft that I had scheduled for my 3^rd day of vacation (Doh!). Too busy playing golf and drinking margaritas I guess. So no practice round for me and I definitely didn’t feel like I was as wired in as I would have liked for my real FFOC draft. Every draft is different and this one was no exception; I still can’t believe I ended up with such poor WRs. So without further adieu, here is my not very impressive lineup; out of the 8 hole.

Round 1 : QB Peyton Manning

Round 2 : RB DeAngelo Williams

Round 3 : QB Matt Schaub

Round 4 : RB Marion Barber

Round 5 : TE Tony Gonzalez

Round 6 : RB Darren McFadden

Round 7 : RB LenDale White

Round 8 : WR Kevin Walter

Round 9 : WR Derrick Mason

Round 10 : WR Josh Morgan

Round 11 : WR Earl Bennett

Round 12 : TDSP New England Patriots

Round 13 : WR Justin Gage

Round 14 : TE Brent Celek

Round 15 : WR Robert Meachem

Round 16 : RB Correll Buckhalter

Round 17 : RB Greg Jones (waived for B. Johnson)

Round 18 : QB Matt Leinart

Round 19 : K Jeff Reed

Round 20 : TDSP Arizona Cardinals (waived for T. Williamson)

I was hoping to get Moss or Fitzgerald with my 2^nd pick, but they were gone; I almost took Rodgers there, but I like DeAngelo again this year. I like Matt Schaub, but it was real risky and I just don’t feel comfortable that I can count on him for 16 games.

Barber and Gonzales were solid picks (imo), and then I rolled the dice and selected McFadden & LenDale White who I think is a better late pick than Chris Johnson is early. After that it was all about scrounging for whatever WRs I could get and obviously there wasn’t much there. I think Josh Morgan could have a monster year or at least be decent. I also like (to a much lesser extent) Earl Bennett as a good sleeper candidate. Obviously mediocre (at best) Walter, Mason and Gage have little upside. I will need to be very active on the WW and hope I can get lucky. I really like Celek and I think NE will be at least a top 10 FF D. Meachem has some potential to emerge; Greg Jones, Buckhalter and Ariz D are likely WW fodder. As previously stated, IMO, Warner has bust written all over him this year and Leinart could be big. I have already dropped Jones and Ariz for Bryant Johnson & Troy Williamson.

I don’t think this team has any real chance at competing; however, FF is a fickle game and you never know. Lock and Load everyone and good luck to all!

Things Are Heating Up!

Are we ready for some football! Football season is finally here and not a moment too soon. I just got involved in my first draft which I will write about in more detail later. It is a non FFOC email draft, but a draft none the less. I am signed up for a Q draft which I will do a few days before my Tier 2 draft. I wish I could do more, but between my other teams and finances I just don’t think I will be able to do more than that. Maybe some additional Q teams, but that is about it. Having only one team does put me at a distinct disadvantage against the multitude of multi team owners; however my victory will be all the sweeter if and when I finish in the money. Competing against pros that enter dozens of teams is one of the many unique aspects of the FFOC. I am sure there are FF purists who might be bothered by this; I on the other hand consider it a challenge and just part of the evolution of this wonderful game we call Fantasy Football.

As I mentioned, one of my drafts is in progress and I would like to start talking about players I love/hate, and players I like/don’t like for this year. I want to emphasize the “this year” portion of that statement. For instance, last year I loved Brees and had him rated as my top QB right next to Brady. This year I like Brees, but I would rate Brady, Brees and Manning all about equal (duh). Yeah I know, I will try to avoid the captain obvious stuff, but I do need to include context and background on my posts. Anyway, as I posted previously, I am a firm believer in taking players you feel good about as opposed to players the experts may feel good about. It is not my intent to create a “captain obvious” and or extensive list of players by rank; just a few players here and there. So without further adieu, here are a few love/hate players for your digestion.

QBs

I love Brady and since he is coming back from injury it is worth noting that I think he will have a big year and I rate him slightly ahead of Brees and Manning.

I like Schaub, Rodgers, McNabb, and Hasselbeck.

I don’t like Warner. Now don’t get me wrong, I had Warner in several leagues last year and he is terrific; however I think he is a huge injury risk who will likely be taken much higher in drafts than I would be comfortable taking him. I will be keeping a close eye on Leinart and looking to stash him (Leinart) on my teams where I can. IMO, Leinart could become a big factor later in the year. I also don’t like Leftwhich and I mention him because I am surprised at how many times I have read people extolling his virtues both in real NFL terms and FF. I don’t see what they see in him and I wouldn’t touch him with a 20 foot pole.

WRs

Love Fitz (duh), I like Houshman and Anthony Gonzales; don’t like Ocho, Owens, Holt and Colston.

Memories from 2008

I had a decent year last year, DeAngelo Williams carried me to victory in my oldest league and I made the playoffs in 2 out of 3 other leagues. The one league where I wasn’t competitive was the one league where I drafted Tom Brady with the 12th overall pick and try as I might I could never recover. As I stated earlier, luck plays a huge role in FF and I liken it to No Limit Texas Hold’em; you can do everything right and still lose. Thems the breaks, you got to take the good with the bad. Brady’s injury was a tuff break no doubt, but luck sometimes works to your advantage. IIRC, DeAngelo Williams and Stewart were flip flopped on many draft boards. I remember picking Williams and then hearing snickers as Stewart was taken with the next pick. It was a coin flip between the two as far as I was concerned and I just had a better feeling about Williams so I took him.

I thought 2008 was a bit unique in that so many rookies played so well and were significant contributors to many FF teams. FTR, I don’t see that happening again in 2009 with the exception of maybe just a couple of rookies such as Moreno.

I went back and forth over whether or not I should post this next paragraph, but in the end I decided honesty is probably the best policy. Besides, I am not here to pontificate about allegedly superior FF prowess. I am here to share my experiences and offer advice and commentary. I make mistakes just like anyone else and last year I broke a cardinal FF rule, thou shall make sure you properly prepare for every draft and understand and remember all the applicable rules of the particular league you are playing in. There really is no excuse, but I am going to give it my best shot anyway. Sometimes, work, family and life can get in the way of the really important things like FF. Playing and drafting in too many leagues doesn’t help either. Last year I had some things going on and I did not give the FFOC draft the attention it deserved. For instance, I knew you could start 2 qbs and made note of it on my draft sheet; however, being the mental giant that I am it completely slipped my mind. I am ashamed to say that I did not realize it until well into the draft. I also made a mistake on the FFOC roster restrictions in the early weeks and didn’t pickup a player I could have simply because I thought I wasn’t allowed. I did manage to make it to my FFOC league championship game in spite of myself, but I wonder what might have been. It bothers me that I made such "Captain Obvious" type mistakes, but the lesson re-enforced is time and preparation are critical to the drafting and management of every FF team. I am going to work hard to see to it that I do not make any similar mistakes this year.

General FF Philosophy and MO

It was my very first pick in my very first year and the “book”, aka cheat sheet indicated that Emmitt Smith was the logical choice. I didn’t feel good about taking Smith and on top that I didn't really like the Cowboys at the time (nothing personal, maybe it was because they had been winning so much at the time). However, I went ahead and took him and unfortunately for me that wasn’t the year he scored 25 or even 15 tds (as he had in the previous 2 years) nooooo, it was the year he didn’t score his first td until October 17th and he only scored 4 tds all year!

Smith did go on to have some productive years, but I vowed that I would listen to what my instincts told me and not take players that I didn't have a good feeling about. There is no escaping the fact that we are all going to be wrong with numerous picks every year. You might as well take the players you really like and if it’s a swing and a miss, at least it is your swing and miss and not someone else’s.

Stats can be useful, but only to a certain degree and imo simpler is almost always better. Far too many variables are involved that are difficult if not impossible to account for. Some sites continue to churn out exotic formulas and take stat crunching to insane levels. Most of these formulas use flawed logic and aren’t worth the pixels they occupy on your screen. Such a monumental waste of ones time and energy, don’t fall for it. There are no magic formulas, do your home work, make your best decision and go with it. Again simpler is better and it has been my experience that more often than not, my first inclination is the best one.

I don’t do my own projections; projections are what I pay 2 different services for. I do use projections and Tiers and I try to get as many opinions as I can on players. However, in the end the decision is mine and mine alone. I don’t go whining to those who have given or sold me their opinion and been wrong. Gather as much information as you can and make your own decisions. I am giving out my opinion for free and the question isn’t will I be wrong, the question is how often will I be wrong and what impact will it have on my season? If you’re instinct or other sources tell you to do the opposite of something I advise then please don’t take my advice. If you do take my advice and it proves to be erroneous then welcome to the “I got bad FF advice club”, suck it up and let’s move on.

MO

I try not to play in more than 4 leagues and I really prefer re-draft and ppr leagues; not because I have anything against other formats, it just makes it easier to play in multiple leagues. I am still playing in my first league (14 years) and we usually have the draft at my house. Draft day is really a lot of fun and I can’t wait for Aug 30th to roll around. All the rest of the leagues are online leagues. I usually do at least one or two Ant leagues and I like the flexibility of doing the draft via email; all though slow drafters can be very frustrating to have to put up with.

“Who am I? Why am I here?”

And so it begins with the immortal words of Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale (who it is most certainly worth noting, was one of the most highly decorated officers in the history of the United States Navy).

Who am I?
I am a 40 something father of 3 who loves pro football in general and FF in particular. I am an IT professional and I have been playing FF for the last 13 years. Who am I not? I am not an employee of Fanball or FFOC and they are not responsible for, nor do they have any input into what I write. These are solely my own wacky opinions.

Why am I here?
I saw a post in the FFOC forums inviting people to blog and since I love FF, I thought why not give it a try. For quite sometime I have had pangs of guilt over being in the IT profession and not having a blog. Of course being very opinionated and never being shy about sharing that opinion doesn't hurt either!

I am here to share my thoughts and opinions and talk about all things football, mostly FF and FFOC, but NFL as well. I have won my share of leagues and I have been an also ran in many leagues. Knowledge and skill play a huge role in FF success, but so does luck. I think my FF opinions in general are as good as many of the so called experts. This blog will give me (and others I hope!) a chance to put up or shut up. I enjoyed playing in the FFOC last year where I made it to to my league championship game only to fall a bit short. However, I did win a free entry for this year and I plan to write about my trials and tribulations as I play again. I am hoping others will join me in talking about different FFOC thoughts and strategies.

In my next post (which should be soon) I want to talk about FF philosophy and strategy and some of the things that happened last year.